August 24, 2025
August Market Minute 2025
What Mexico’s Steel Proposal Means for Texas Buyers
Mexico is looking to bring back a North American steel committee that would team up U.S. and Mexican steelmakers along with trade officials. The goal? Strengthen trade ties here at home and rely less on steel from overseas.
For small and mid-sized buyers in Texas, this could be good news. A stronger North American supply chain may help keep things steadier, less exposure to sudden global price swings and fewer surprises when it comes to sourcing material.
Of course, there are still moving parts. If Mexico begins buying more U.S. steel, demand could tighten, which may nudge prices up. At the same time, ongoing talks over tariffs could impact how easily steel moves across the border.
Bottom line: change is coming, but the focus is on building a more reliable, regional steel supply. That’s something Texas buyers should keep an eye on.
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Aluminum Buyers Feeling the Pinch
Most of the movement with aluminum prices lately is happening in the Midwest Premiums—the added cost to get aluminum delivered into the region.
Why the bump? A 50% tariff on imported aluminum ingot is being fully priced into the market, pushing premiums higher. That means buyers are paying more for delivered aluminum, even if the base aluminum price hasn’t moved much.
Where things go next depends heavily on negotiations. If trade deals ease tariffs—especially with big suppliers like Canada—premiums could drop quickly. But if talks stall, buyers may continue to see higher costs as we head toward 2026.
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Stainless: Stable, but Watch the Tariffs
Nickel—the key ingredient that drives stainless surcharges—is holding in the $6–$7 per pound range. That’s relatively low compared to five-year averages, which is keeping surcharges at manageable levels for buyers.
There are a couple of wrinkles worth noting:
Tariffs: Recent tariffs on imports have led to some base price increases, and so far, those increases appear to be sticking.
Nickel Supply: Global nickel production, especially from Indonesia, continues to add supply into the market. That’s kept prices from running higher, but it also means inventories are building, which could pressure markets if demand doesn’t pick up.
For now, stainless buyers are seeing a more predictable environment, steady nickel, manageable surcharges, and base prices that are adjusting to tariff policy.
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